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pitafi
09-26-2006, 01:28 AM
By Farrukh Khan Pitafi

Those who eagerly studied Musharraf’s press talk with Bush and observed their body language will agree with me that the reality writ large on their faces was a tacit admission of the fact that the meeting did not go too well. A fumbling President Bush let his tongue slip the word ‘bad’ where he intended ‘good’. Whether it was a Freudian slip, one cannot really say. However, one has to wonder why the President of Pakistan could not see this coming. Has there ever been one Pakistani leader who escaped the US penchant for short-changing its Muslim allies once they outlive their utility? But if the president is having second thoughts, he should know it is too late.

Bush says he was taken aback by Musharraf’s revelation regarding the alleged US post-9/11 threats to Pakistan. One wonders how he could be naïve enough to be shocked when he had only one day earlier threatened to invade the tribal areas of Pakistan if his intelligence community claimed that Osama was inside Pakistan. But wait a minute. Is it not the same intelligence community that considered the presence of WMDs in Iraq was slam dunk? Musharraf’s statement also leaves behind some tricky questions. Why this sudden urge to speak out on the issue after six years of the incident? Could this not be included in his address to the nation immediately after 9/11? I feel obliged to view this outburst against the backdrop of his recent visit to Afghanistan.

A friend who accompanied the president confessed that he was extremely apologetic even when people used the harshest possible language against Pakistan. It was during his trip to Afghanistan that while reassuring the Afghan legislators of his full commitment to fighting the Taliban threat , he made a comment that had his country been supporting the Taliban, the US would have started bombing us. Since almost everyone thought that such a statement was tantamount to inviting more trouble and had also attracted Bush’s recent remarks regarding the hot pursuit of Osama bin Laden, he tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to place it in the proper context.

There are, of course, some conspiracy theorists who believe that the statements by both the leaders were actually meant to scratch each other’s back. Do not forget that Musharraf remains a military ruler whose main constituency still is the army. Since in the recent days there have been many new developments, the General might be feeling insecure. His repeated emphasis on the possibility of US action against Pakistan, therefore, could be a way of reminding his fellow officers that without me you are dead men walking. In this conspiracy theory, Bush’s conviction seems just another attempt to bolster Musharraf’s position vis-à-vis his officers. And what would Bush get out of this cooperation? Colin Powell had embarrassed Bush by writing a letter to the congressional committee, triggering a coup in the GOP. Musharraf’s implicating Armitage and Bush’s throwing the ball in Powell’s court could take revenge from Powell.

If I am allowed to express my view here, I daresay such a theory is a bit far-fetched even though you can never rule out any possibility. Then there are those who do not forget Nawaz Sharif’s claim regarding the presence of Israeli helicopters in Indian-held Kashmir on the eve of the nuclear detonation. Pakistani leaders have occasionally exploited the paranoia on the street to extract maximum political mileage in the past. Is it possible that Musharraf conjured this threat out of thin air to dictate his terms to his colleagues? Had Musharraf done so, at least he would have avoided discussing it during his visit to the US, less so mentioning it in his book or his televised interview. Then for a detailed explanation we will have to wait for the General’s memoirs, as it is also unlikely that Lt General (retired) Mahmud, being a hawkish general, would tell a lie that would lead to the fall of the Taliban. The other person who can solve the mystery is Mahmud himself, if it pleases him.

While the members of Musharraf’s still bloating entourage will insist that the itinerary was highly successful, there is hardly any doubt that thus far it has been an abysmal failure. Except for some half-hearted attempts at damage control, nothing substantial seems forthcoming. Yes, he is to launch his book there too, but with due respect one must point out that it is an official visit and his book launch a private matter at best. And frankly, it seems a bit odd to find a sitting general president writing a book on sensitive matters when even his recently retired colleagues cannot express themselves before the media owing to the Official Secrets Act.

I believe that in the coming days, Musharraf will quite rapidly lose support both in the US and Pakistan. His single-minded pursuit of only myopic and short-term policies may seriously affect the fate of this country too. Perhaps there is still some time left for safe recovery. If that is squandered, a beleaguered president may take along with him this country’s integrity.

There is constant need to study closely the developments in Balochistan. While neither the BLA nor Bugti or Balach Marri could pose any serious threat to the federation, the recently held Kalat grand jirga has enough potential to translate the US Armed Forces Journal’s projected map of Pakistan into reality. The current move picks up the accession deed and challenges the present situation purely on legal grounds. There is an urgent need for damage control and the use of force will never serve the purpose. Musharraf’s miscalculations should now end or else we are ruined. And then he should also recall Zia’s end and the fact that Bush opened his statement with reference to the mortal peril Musharraf was in. Was it some kind of warning from our General’s Mecca?