pitafi
01-01-2007, 09:33 PM
Shape of things to come
Farrukh Khan Pitafi
A young man stripped of his trousers stands wallowing in pain and shame, surrounded by policemen. This and many similar pictures recently surfaced on the web thanks to BBCUrdu.com’s focus on missing citizens of this country. The crime of this young man – Muhammad bin Masud – was that he, along with a procession, wanted to hand over a memorandum to the Vice-Chief of Army Staff demanding the release of the missing citizens allegedly abducted by the security agencies or perhaps surrendered to the Western imperialists to gain some financial breathing space. Such is the state of affairs in the Islamic republic. So far so good for the government that bows to foreigners but not to its own citizens. But what if the cookie starts crumbling only too soon?
At the time of writing of these lines, there is news that Saddam Hussein has been hanged and the proceedings videotaped already. Saddam remains to this day the metaphor of our times. His and Pinochet’s examples should teach the tinpot autocratic leaders a lesson. The lesson is simple. No matter how much you surrender to the foreign will, your benefactors and paymasters of today may finally take you to the gallows. It seems only yesterday when Saddam was a US ally despite his reign of torture against his own people and his initiation of the war with Iran. And Saddam’s death is symbolic too.
On the one hand, just like Aimal Kansi, he was executed during sacred Islamic days and, on the other, he was tried and executed by his fellow citizens, quite like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, following a highly controversial and manipulated legal process. I say manipulated because judges were changed whenever they thought he deserved anything less than a death sentence and this is almost an open secret. Folks, I do not have any sympathy for Saddam. But honestly, the crude way in which this trial and then the execution were handled is proof that the neo-con agenda has nothing to do with spreading democracy. Otherwise, is it not common sense that democracy is not spread in such a draconian fashion when you lose the battle of hearts? Such is the state of things at the end of this year.
Can we divine the future and make sense of the possible by using this year’s example as a template? I have been writing the year-ender pieces for the papers for a considerable time. But this time, some of my readers have asked me to present my views for the approaching New Year. I am not quite a seer, but using a social and political scientist’s gift, let me try.
It is my belief that things will worsen before getting any better. This, especially, is more likely to be true for Pakistan. Pakistan’s political set up today stands on a very fragile masonry. If you have noted, we are already being subjected to the neo-con conspiracies. No matter how much we are told we are close to the US in its war on terror, there is no doubt that such talk is only window dressing. Chances are that under pressure from the US, Pakistan will have to finally nix the Waziristan accord. It was a great deal gone badly owing to the ISPR’s mismanagement. The DG ISPR’s one ill-conceived and ill-timed interview has cost us the trust of the world community and eventually our own citizens. I hence, unfortunately, see more blood in the tribal areas and Balochistan. But given this state of affairs, can we say that Pakistan will survive the foreign and domestic onslaughts? I believe that despite a considerable ruckus, not only will this country survive, but also have an impact on the global and regional politics. The fallout will essentially be on the government and not the federation.
In these mushy times, even though the government may keep pretending that the country is bracing for the elections, I do not think it will be able to conduct polls in time. There are several reasons. First of all, it lacks political cohesion and secondly, I do not think our generalissimo is going to be pleased with any arrangement that does not see him in uniform. As the power crisis and the economic anarchy spread, he will take many childish decisions that may finally mark his end in politics. In such a situation, we will not head towards elections, but another military takeover. 2007 may unfortunately prove to be the year for economic depression in the country as various bubbles may soon burst. Yet there is finally some hope too. If the State Bank continues to embrace realistic policies under perhaps its most dynamic gubernator thus far, the crisis might be averted. But the energy crisis seems here to stay with us for a while, having great ramifications for the country’s politics. There are two more things that should have been there if my reasoning is correct, but apparently they are not. First, I have kept this feeling to myself for quite some time and it is related to the emergence of a new political force in the shape of a new political party with untainted, dynamic and moderate leaders. Second, given the rich-poor divide, the country should have been a hotbed for socialist movements, but I fail to understand the reason for their absence from the scene thus far.
2007 may also bring an end to the hoax of the neo-cons. There is some debate going on in the West whether the neo-cons will try orchestrating another 9/11 or not. But honestly, today the American people are better informed than they were in 2001 and there is a good chance that such a manoeuvre may lead to a blowback against the cabal. Otherwise Saddam’s hanging may prove to be the last thing it does through the power echelons. As the election year approaches, the Republicans will want to ditch the cabal and look for the middle ground. And with this, the Karzai regime in Afghanistan and Zalmay Khalilzad’s venomous policies in Iraq may also end.
What about nuclear proliferation? It seems to me that this year may mark the formal end of the non-proliferation regime. Apart from the Indian nuclear deal, we may witness Iran and Japan going nuclear. Iran has only a three month period to achieve what it can or else it will be too late. It may also have to follow the example of North Korea regarding the NPT. If Japan goes nuclear, and it may happen very soon, with the nuclearisation of the only victim of a nuclear assault, non-proliferation activities may seize to exist. This is the way things may unravel in the absence of some unpredictable historical accident or a miracle.
The writer is a freelance columnist and media expert
Farrukh Khan Pitafi
A young man stripped of his trousers stands wallowing in pain and shame, surrounded by policemen. This and many similar pictures recently surfaced on the web thanks to BBCUrdu.com’s focus on missing citizens of this country. The crime of this young man – Muhammad bin Masud – was that he, along with a procession, wanted to hand over a memorandum to the Vice-Chief of Army Staff demanding the release of the missing citizens allegedly abducted by the security agencies or perhaps surrendered to the Western imperialists to gain some financial breathing space. Such is the state of affairs in the Islamic republic. So far so good for the government that bows to foreigners but not to its own citizens. But what if the cookie starts crumbling only too soon?
At the time of writing of these lines, there is news that Saddam Hussein has been hanged and the proceedings videotaped already. Saddam remains to this day the metaphor of our times. His and Pinochet’s examples should teach the tinpot autocratic leaders a lesson. The lesson is simple. No matter how much you surrender to the foreign will, your benefactors and paymasters of today may finally take you to the gallows. It seems only yesterday when Saddam was a US ally despite his reign of torture against his own people and his initiation of the war with Iran. And Saddam’s death is symbolic too.
On the one hand, just like Aimal Kansi, he was executed during sacred Islamic days and, on the other, he was tried and executed by his fellow citizens, quite like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, following a highly controversial and manipulated legal process. I say manipulated because judges were changed whenever they thought he deserved anything less than a death sentence and this is almost an open secret. Folks, I do not have any sympathy for Saddam. But honestly, the crude way in which this trial and then the execution were handled is proof that the neo-con agenda has nothing to do with spreading democracy. Otherwise, is it not common sense that democracy is not spread in such a draconian fashion when you lose the battle of hearts? Such is the state of things at the end of this year.
Can we divine the future and make sense of the possible by using this year’s example as a template? I have been writing the year-ender pieces for the papers for a considerable time. But this time, some of my readers have asked me to present my views for the approaching New Year. I am not quite a seer, but using a social and political scientist’s gift, let me try.
It is my belief that things will worsen before getting any better. This, especially, is more likely to be true for Pakistan. Pakistan’s political set up today stands on a very fragile masonry. If you have noted, we are already being subjected to the neo-con conspiracies. No matter how much we are told we are close to the US in its war on terror, there is no doubt that such talk is only window dressing. Chances are that under pressure from the US, Pakistan will have to finally nix the Waziristan accord. It was a great deal gone badly owing to the ISPR’s mismanagement. The DG ISPR’s one ill-conceived and ill-timed interview has cost us the trust of the world community and eventually our own citizens. I hence, unfortunately, see more blood in the tribal areas and Balochistan. But given this state of affairs, can we say that Pakistan will survive the foreign and domestic onslaughts? I believe that despite a considerable ruckus, not only will this country survive, but also have an impact on the global and regional politics. The fallout will essentially be on the government and not the federation.
In these mushy times, even though the government may keep pretending that the country is bracing for the elections, I do not think it will be able to conduct polls in time. There are several reasons. First of all, it lacks political cohesion and secondly, I do not think our generalissimo is going to be pleased with any arrangement that does not see him in uniform. As the power crisis and the economic anarchy spread, he will take many childish decisions that may finally mark his end in politics. In such a situation, we will not head towards elections, but another military takeover. 2007 may unfortunately prove to be the year for economic depression in the country as various bubbles may soon burst. Yet there is finally some hope too. If the State Bank continues to embrace realistic policies under perhaps its most dynamic gubernator thus far, the crisis might be averted. But the energy crisis seems here to stay with us for a while, having great ramifications for the country’s politics. There are two more things that should have been there if my reasoning is correct, but apparently they are not. First, I have kept this feeling to myself for quite some time and it is related to the emergence of a new political force in the shape of a new political party with untainted, dynamic and moderate leaders. Second, given the rich-poor divide, the country should have been a hotbed for socialist movements, but I fail to understand the reason for their absence from the scene thus far.
2007 may also bring an end to the hoax of the neo-cons. There is some debate going on in the West whether the neo-cons will try orchestrating another 9/11 or not. But honestly, today the American people are better informed than they were in 2001 and there is a good chance that such a manoeuvre may lead to a blowback against the cabal. Otherwise Saddam’s hanging may prove to be the last thing it does through the power echelons. As the election year approaches, the Republicans will want to ditch the cabal and look for the middle ground. And with this, the Karzai regime in Afghanistan and Zalmay Khalilzad’s venomous policies in Iraq may also end.
What about nuclear proliferation? It seems to me that this year may mark the formal end of the non-proliferation regime. Apart from the Indian nuclear deal, we may witness Iran and Japan going nuclear. Iran has only a three month period to achieve what it can or else it will be too late. It may also have to follow the example of North Korea regarding the NPT. If Japan goes nuclear, and it may happen very soon, with the nuclearisation of the only victim of a nuclear assault, non-proliferation activities may seize to exist. This is the way things may unravel in the absence of some unpredictable historical accident or a miracle.
The writer is a freelance columnist and media expert